April 14, 2025
With state-level elections ahead in the U.S. and the 2026 midterms on the horizon, President Donald J. Trump is signaling a seismic shift on the global stage. His upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is not just a diplomatic stop—it’s a calculated, high-stakes maneuver aimed at reshaping Middle East alliances, reviving the Abraham Accords, and solidifying America’s influence in a region under siege.
A Deal Bigger Than Gaza
Reports suggest that a major ceasefire deal may be in the works, with Saudi Arabia stepping into the role of peace broker—and Israel as the potential trade chip. The timing is crucial: the war in Gaza has reached a strategic bottleneck, international pressure is mounting, and Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity to cement its status as a global diplomatic power.
But the real play is far larger. According to senior Gulf sources, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to push for a ceasefire unless it is bundled with substantial concessions: a renewed U.S.-Saudi security pact, advanced arms deals, and progress toward normalization with Israel.
Here lies the irony: Israel, a longstanding U.S. ally, may now be positioned as a diplomatic lever between Washington and Riyadh. A ceasefire brokered by Saudi influence, in exchange for U.S. defense guarantees and diplomatic normalization, would mark a new model of triangular diplomacy—one that could reset the region’s strategic order.
Trump’s Timing—and the Bigger Stakes
President Trump’s return to Riyadh mirrors his first foreign trip in 2017, also to Saudi Arabia, when he launched his bold diplomatic vision for the region. Now, with mounting frustration over the current administration’s perceived drift in foreign affairs, Trump is once again stepping into the vacuum.
And there’s more on the table than ceasefires and handshakes.
According to The Arabian Post, the trip is expected to finalize a historic agreement in which Saudi Arabia would invest approximately $1 trillion into the U.S. economy over the next four years—including substantial military procurement. At the same time, the Biden-era nuclear framework may soon give way to a new civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm confirmed that a broad energy cooperation agreement will be signed within weeks, with a nuclear deal expected within months.
Such a deal—potentially allowing Saudi uranium enrichment under international safeguards—would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Now, it’s central to Riyadh’s Vision 2030 and Washington’s strategic calculus.
What Trump Gets in Return
For Trump, a Gaza ceasefire coupled with Saudi-led normalization could revive his foreign policy credentials and relaunch the Abraham Accords with new momentum. It would frame him as a bold statesman—one able to deliver results where others falter.
It also lays the groundwork for massive economic opportunities: Gulf-Israeli-American cooperation across sectors like AI, defense, infrastructure, and energy. Jared Kushner, through his firm Affinity Partners (backed by a $2B Saudi investment), has been laying the economic rails for this kind of deal since 2021.
But Can Hamas—and Iran—Be Contained?
Yet the wild card remains: Hamas.
There’s no indication Hamas will voluntarily demilitarize. Its leadership views armed resistance as non-negotiable. Ceasefires are often seen as pauses—not peace. Without serious pressure and monitoring—perhaps even Arab-enforced disarmament—any ceasefire is fragile at best.
Then there’s the bottleneck of the problem: Iran.
As the chief sponsor of Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militant proxies, Iran’s fingerprints are everywhere. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has openly called for Israel’s destruction—this is not mere rhetoric, but a doctrinal cornerstone of Tehran’s revolutionary regime.
Iran actively seeks to derail normalization efforts, fearing loss of influence if Arab-Israeli ties deepen. Whether through proxy escalations or diplomatic sabotage, Tehran is poised to respond aggressively to any Trump-brokered peace deal.
Qatar’s Complicating Role
It’s also worth noting that Qatar, which has hosted Hamas leadership and maintains warm ties with Iran, could be a spoiler. While Saudi Arabia seeks to lead normalization, Qatar’s influence over Hamas and its rivalry with Riyadh complicate the negotiation terrain. Trump’s planned visit to Qatar following Saudi Arabia could be an attempt to bridge that divide—or to draw red lines.
The “One-State Reality” and the Future of Peace
Commentators like Thomas Friedman argue that the two-state solution is dead, replaced by a “one-state reality” where Israel controls all land from the Jordan River to the sea. Trump may be gambling that regional normalization will pressure Palestinian leadership to moderate or transform. But real peace—sustainable peace—must address both security and governance on the Palestinian side.
Legacy-Defining Moment
This is more than a ceasefire. It’s a moment of strategic recalibration, with Trump seeking to realign alliances, reopen doors to peace and trade, and reassert U.S. leadership in a fractured region.
If he succeeds, Trump won’t just be revisiting the past success of the Abraham Accords—he’ll be writing the next chapter. From Gaza to Riyadh, from nuclear deals to trillion-dollar investments, the stakes are nothing short of legacy-defining.
And this time, the world is watching.
As I write this article, I’m leaving Mexico, flying back to Dallas-Fort Worth. Looking through the window and seeing the deep blue ocean, I find myself praying for this nation to experience revival. My spirit is agonizing for the souls of men. My heart is in pain—as it was while writing these very lines. A familiar feeling returns: the eternal déjà vu of what happens when nations break covenant with the Eternal and violate His promises to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob.