April 20, 2025
Saudi Arabia’s Silent Leverage
Saudi Arabia has been negotiating quietly behind the scenes, seeking to stabilize the region while positioning itself as a peace broker. If Riyadh succeeds in helping to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, it would significantly enhance its global image and open new economic and political channels—especially with Western allies. The Kingdom aims to reframe itself not just as an oil superpower, but as a regional stabilizer and global partner for peace.
For President Trump, this is both a political and diplomatic golden ticket. A ceasefire, backed by Saudi influence and revitalized U.S. diplomacy, could restore his foreign policy credentials, reaffirm America’s strength in the Middle East, and reignite the Abraham Accords—the cornerstone of his regional legacy.
But this visit carries a distinctly unusual undertone.
Riyadh’s Risky Reset
In a highly calculated move that could recalibrate power balances across the Middle East, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivering a personal message from King Salman himself. The meeting—extraordinary in both timing and protocol—signals that Riyadh is not only re-engaging Tehran, but doing so at the highest diplomatic level.
This encounter took place on April 17, 2025, just days before the next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Rome. The timing underscores a deepening regional complexity, as Saudi Arabia asserts itself as an independent diplomatic force in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment.
Meanwhile, Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, has been actively involved in nuclear negotiations with Iran. Following initial discussions in Oman, Witkoff resumed talks in Rome for four hours. His messaging has been firm: Iran must fully dismantle its nuclear enrichment program—a sharp break from previous administrations’ incremental diplomacy. There will be additional talks later next week.
Simultaneously, Israel is making its position unmistakably clear. In response to a New York Times report that President Trump halted an Israeli military strike on Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office released a pointed statement reaffirming Israel’s commitment to confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
“Netanyahu has led countless secret and open actions in the campaign against Iran’s nuclear program that only thanks to them Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal today,” the statement read. “These actions delayed Iran’s nuclear program by about a decade, thanks to the prime minister’s insistence on standing up to domestic and foreign opposition to his assertive policy against Iran.”
The message was unambiguous: Israel will act—regardless of shifting alliances. As Riyadh opens channels to Tehran and Washington signals diplomatic restraint, Jerusalem remains committed to preemption over persuasion.
“As the prime minister has said many times: Israel will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
Together, these developments highlight the complex interplay of diplomacy, strategic interests, and evolving alignments across Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States, and Israel. As Prince Khalid meets with Khamenei and Witkoff prepares for Rome, the next phase of regional strategy is being drawn—deliberately, and in tension.
What Is Saudi Arabia Trying to Achieve?
Some analysts view Riyadh’s overtures as a defensive maneuver. With the Gaza war intensifying regional instability and Iran-backed proxies expanding their reach, the Kingdom may be hedging—seeking to de-escalate tensions directly rather than depending on U.S. guarantees.
Others interpret this as strategic repositioning. If Saudi Arabia can position itself as a bridge between adversaries—between Hamas and Israel, Iran and the West, or Sunni rivals—it evolves from energy heavyweight to regional power broker.
Still, the risks are real. Engaging Iran at this level could embolden Tehran, strain U.S.-Saudi defense relations, and complicate Israeli normalization. It also risks reinforcing the illusion that Iran can be persuaded solely through diplomacy, despite decades of evidence to the contrary.
Whether this is a pivot away from the West or a calculated leverage play ahead of Abraham Accord realignments will depend heavily on how Washington and Jerusalem respond.
The Role of the “Trade Chip”: Israel and the U.S.
While the immediate objective is a Gaza ceasefire, Israel’s position in these negotiations remains central. As Ambassador David Friedman writes in Sledgehammer: How Breaking the Rules of Engagement Led to the Death of the Global Order, Israel has evolved into both a strategic partner and a “trade chip” in U.S.-Saudi relations.
President Trump’s original push for normalization through the Abraham Accords underscored how deeply U.S. regional interests are tied to Israeli security. A broader deal encompassing Gaza and Saudi-Israel normalization wouldn’t just be symbolic—it would mark a high-stakes geopolitical transaction, with Israel as both anchor and leverage.
What President Trump Gets in Return
Despite all the shifting dynamics, President Trump’s upcoming visit to Riyadh could yield pivotal outcomes: a Gaza ceasefire, fresh momentum toward Saudi-Israel normalization, and a reassertion of American influence on the global stage.
But this time, the regional landscape is markedly more complex. Saudi Arabia now maintains independent channels to Iran. Qatar’s regional influence remains. And Riyadh, no longer waiting for Washington’s script, is writing its own.
This is not diplomacy as usual—it’s fluid, multi-layered, and deeply consequential. President Trump is stepping into a Saudi Arabia that just held talks with Khamenei, engaged discreetly with Doha, and could yet extend an olive branch to Jerusalem.
It’s a diplomatic triangle with unprecedented stakes—and it will test whether the American president can still shape the region on his terms, or whether this new Middle East will reshape America’s role instead.
The Timing of Trump’s Visit
With U.S. elections on the horizon, President Trump’s visit to Riyadh is more than symbolic—it is strategic. The trip comes at a moment of global instability, particularly over Gaza. Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have vested interests in de-escalating the conflict—albeit for different reasons.
For Riyadh, a ceasefire bolsters its image as a global power broker and aligns with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 agenda. For Trump, the trip offers an opportunity to display decisive international leadership—a direct contrast to perceived inertia from prior administrations.
The Missing Piece: What’s Really Driving Trump’s Enthusiasm?
Amid diplomatic overtures, ceasefire negotiations, and nuclear backchanneling, one question remains: why is President Trump so invested in visiting Saudi Arabia now?
The answer may lie less in regional conflict and more in economic opportunity.
Saudi Arabia is poised to unleash trillions in sovereign investment—from defense and energy deals to AI development, rare earth ventures, and critical U.S. infrastructure. For President Trump, whose economic platform is central to his 2024 strategy, this visit represents a golden opportunity to cement an American-Saudi economic axis.
But that investment may come with a price.
Saudi Arabia seeks normalization with Israel—but on its terms. Its recent engagement with Khamenei, deepening ties with China, and hesitance toward the Abraham Accords all suggest that Israel may now be part of a larger strategic trade-off.
In this evolving equation, Israel becomes both a diplomatic bridge—and a bargaining chip.
The Irony and the Cost
The irony is stunning: President Trump, who championed the Abraham Accords, moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and has arguably done more for Israel than any American president in modern history, may now find himself presiding over a new regional framework where Israel is no longer the centerpiece—but the price of the deal.
And as Netanyahu doubles down on security red lines, and Saudi Arabia’s own Defense Minister meets face-to-face with Khamenei, the puzzle takes shape:
The excitement in Washington is economic.
The calculations in Riyadh are strategic.
And the cost of both may fall on Jerusalem.
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem: they shall prosper that love thee.— Psalm 122:6