Israel's Strike Plan

Table of Content

Netanyahu’s Secret War Plan: Leaked Document Outlines Israel’s “Shock and Awe” Plan to Attack Iran
Israel’s Secret Iran Attack Plan: Electronic Warfare
German officials confirm submarines sold to Israel can fire nuclear-tipped cruise missiles
Anthony Cordesman concludes that Israel will have to use low-yield, earth-penetrating nuclear weapons
Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities
'Cyber terror can lead to "end of the world as we know it"'

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Netanyahu’s Secret War Plan: Leaked Document Outlines Israel’s “Shock and Awe” Plan to Attack Iran

[Netanyahu’s “Secret war plan” was leaked in August 2012 to Tikun Olam. This article by Richard Silverstein was originally published on August 16, 2012.]

In the past few days, I received an Israeli briefing document outlining Israel’s war plans against Iran. The document was passed to me by a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer. My source, in fact, wrote to me that normally he would not leak this sort of document, but:

“These are not normal times. I’m afraid Bibi and Barak are dead serious.”

The reason they leaked it is to expose the arguments and plans advanced by the Bibi-Barak two-headed warrior. Neither the IDF leaker, my source, nor virtually any senior military or intelligence officer wants this war. While whoever wrote this briefing paper had use of IDF and intelligence data, I don’t believe the IDF wrote it. It feels more likely it came from the shop of national security advisor Yaakov Amidror, a former general, settler true-believer and Bibi confidant. It could also have been produced by Defense Minister Barak, another pro-war booster.

I’ve translated the document from Hebrew with the help of Dena Shunra.

This is Shock and Awe, Israel-style.

It is Bibi’s effort to persuade high-level Israeli officials that Israel can prosecute a pure technology war that involves relatively few human beings (Israeli, that is) who may be put in harm’s way, and will certainly cost few lives of IDF personnel.

Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counter-attack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.

Now, think of what an Israeli war against Iran could turn into. Think about how this sanitized version of 21st century war could turn into a protracted, bloody conflict closer to the nine-year Iran-Iraq War:

The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders.
The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action.
The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal.

This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.

A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.
A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.

After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran.

Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.
Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.

The original source of this article is Tikun Olam-תיקון עולם and Global Research,

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Israel’s Secret Iran Attack Plan: Electronic Warfare – Nov 16, 2011 Israel has electronic weapons that could be deployed if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear sites.

Source: Daily Beast

For much of the last decade, as Iran methodically built its nuclear program, Israel has been assembling a multibillion-dollar array of high-tech weapons that would allow it to jam, blind, and deafen Tehran's defenses in the case of a pre-emptive aerial strike.

A U.S. intelligence assessment this summer, described to The Daily Beast by current and former U.S. intelligence officials, concluded that any Israeli attack on hardened nuclear sites in Iran would go far beyond airstrikes from F-15 and F-16 fighter planes and likely include electronic warfare against Iran’s electric grid, Internet, cellphone network, and emergency frequencies for firemen and police officers.

For example, Israel has developed a weapon capable of mimicking a maintenance cellphone signal that commands a cell network to “sleep,” effectively stopping transmissions, officials confirmed. The Israelis also have jammers capable of creating interference within Iran’s emergency frequencies for first responders.

In a 2007 attack on a suspected nuclear site at al-Kibar, the Syrian military got a taste of this warfare when Israeli planes “spoofed” the country’s air-defense radars, at first making it appear that no jets were in the sky and then in an instant making the radar believe the sky was filled with hundreds of planes.

Israel also likely would exploit a vulnerability that U.S. officials detected two years ago in Iran's big-city electric grids, which are not “air-gapped”—meaning they are connected to the Internet and therefore vulnerable to a Stuxnet-style cyberattack—officials say.

A highly secretive research lab attached to the U.S. joint staff and combatant commands, known as the Joint Warfare Analysis Center (JWAC), discovered the weakness in Iran’s electrical grid in 2009, according to one retired senior military intelligence officer. This source also said the Israelis have the capability to bring a denial-of-service attack to nodes of Iran’s command and control system that rely on the Internet.

Tony Decarbo, the executive officer for JWAC, declined comment for this story. The likely delivery method for the electronic elements of this attack would be an unmanned aerial vehicle the size of a jumbo jet. An earlier version of the bird was called the Heron, the latest version is known as the Eitan. According to the Israeli press, the Eitan can fly for 20 straight hours and carry a payload of one ton. Another version of the drone, however, can fly up to 45 straight hours, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

Unmanned drones have been an integral part of U.S. wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, gathering intelligence and firing missiles at suspected insurgents. But Israel's fleet has been specially fitted for electronic warfare, according to officials.

The Eitans and Herons would also likely be working with a special Israeli air force unit known as the Sky Crows, which focuses only on electronic warfare. A 2010 piece in The Jerusalem Post quoted the commander of the electronic warfare unit as saying, “Our objective is to activate our systems and to disrupt and neutralize the enemy’s systems.”

Fred Fleitz, who left his post this year as a Republican senior staffer who focused on Iran at the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said in his meetings with Israeli defense and intelligence officials, they would always say all options were on the table.

"I think Israel has the capabilities with their air force and mid-air refueling to take on these sites," said Fleitz, who is now managing editor of Lignet.com. "They would have to take out radar and anti-aircraft. They could also attack with missiles and their drone fleet."

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Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities – March 14, 2009

Click here: CSIS Study

Abdullah Toukan, Senior Associate Anthony H. Cordesman,

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy

Anthony Cordesman concludes that Israel will have to use low-yield, earth-penetrating nuclear weapons

In a recent report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), military analyst Anthony Cordesman concluded that Israel will have to use low-yield, earth-penetrating nuclear weapons if it wants to take out deeply-buried nuclear sites in Iran.

"Israel is reported to possess a 200 kilogram nuclear warhead containing 6 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium that could be mounted on the sea launched cruise missiles and producing a Yield of 20 kilo tons," Cordesman writes in the CSIS study he co-authored by Abdullah Toukan.

Israel would be most likely to launch these missiles from its Dolphin-class submarines, he added.

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German officials confirm submarines sold to Israel can fire nuclear-tipped cruise missiles

Source: Haaretz

June 3, 2012

Submarines produced by Germany and supplied to Israel as part of an extensive arms deal are equipped to enable the launch of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, the German weekly Der Spiegel reported on Sunday.

Last month, Israel received its fourth Dolphin–class submarine from Germany, which is expected to become operational in 2013.

According to a senior Israel Navy officer speaking upon the arrival of the craft, the "submarine has a range for everything," adding that it needs to refuel and charge its batteries only once in a long while.

"This submarine can stay underwater for longer," he added, saying it had both "visible and invisible" abilities and was meant to operate in the Mediterranean.

The first three submarines were given to Israel by Germany in the late 1990s, with the German government footing most of the bill.

According to foreign reports, they are equipped with cruise missiles that have a range of 1,500 kilometers and can carry nuclear warheads. These reports say the submarines enable Israel to deliver a "second strike" in the event of a nuclear attack.

Nuclear subs are game changers. And Israel is believed to have 250 nuclear weapons, jets and planes to deliver the weapons, land-based missiles and now submarines with nuclear-tipped cruised missiles. This is a very formidable to say the least.

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'Cyber terror can lead to "end of the world as we know it"'

US, Israel to boost cyber-warfare cooperation

Source: Ynet

July 6, 2012

Deputy FM [Foreign Minister] Ayalon, head of U.S. anti-terror bureau meet [sic], agrees that experts should convene regularly. [A] Russian, whose lab exposed the Flame virus, [told the] Tel Aviv conference: "Cyber terror can lead to 'end of the world as we know it.'"

"It's not cyber warfare, it's cyber terrorism, and I’m afraid it's just the beginning of the game … I'm afraid it will be the end of the world as we know it," Eugene Kaspersky told reporters at a cyber-security conference in Tel Aviv.

"I'm scared, believe me," he said.

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